Tim Pickering was interviewed by Mike Eppel on 680 News Canada.

About 4 million barrels of Canadian Crude Oil are exported from Alberta to the United States every day. While President Trump has suggested the US doesn’t need anything from Canada, he ignores the fact that Canada is the largest source of Crude imports (do they really want more from Venezuela, Russia or the Middle East?).

Trump tariffs could affect heavy oil differentials (currently -$12 to -$14 see here via the Canadian Crude Index), some say by as much 5-$15/b....but this simply is "the art of the deal". Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is smarter than that.

To hear more, download the MP3 audio recording here.

Auspice was featured in the December 24th 2024 special to the Financial Post.

There are always surprises in commodities. It wasn’t too long ago when investors were exuberant around so-called “energy transition” commodities. Now we look back, lithium, cobalt and natural gas are among the worst-performing markets in 2024. The long-term fundamentals are compelling, but timing is everything.

As we enter 2025, timing for these and other commodities may be opportune. The election result in the United States and the Republican platform are widely considered inflationary, with commodities a key component in this.

Read More.

CALGARY, Alberta, Dec. 19, 2024 - Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (Auspice) is pleased to announce that after listening to our institutional and retail investors, Canada’s original and only pioneering 81-102 approved “return stacking / portable alpha” solution, the Auspice One Fund Trust is evolving to serve you better by modifying its investment strategies.

Instead of overlaying a value-tilted balanced mandate, we are simplifying the investment strategy. For every dollar invested, you get $1 of exposure to the long-standing protective CTA / managed futures fund, Auspice Diversified, and $1 of exposure to the S&P500. Two for one.

You gain diversification without sacrificing your core holdings.

See more here.

Tim Pickering was featured in a April 7th 2024 Special to the Financial Post.

Like many things within financial markets, the link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. As an example, it is generally understood that central banks raise rates in an attempt to control inflation. Yet what is less understood is that raising rates only affects our spending, the so-called “demand-pull inflation” associated with manufactured goods, whereas it does little to control the “cost-push inflation” associated with commodity prices and wages.

Central banks can’t control commodity prices or their supply since raising rates neither increases short-term commodity supplies nor attracts long-term commodity infrastructure investments.

Another rarely made link is the one between technology and commodities, or new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels and drill bits. But the link is strong and growing stronger, and it may be an important factor in the extension of the current commodity cycle that started in 2020 — cycles that typically last 10 years.

Read More.

Fund aims to deliver noncorrelated returns, “crisis alpha”, and inflation protection in a new corporate class structure.

CALGARY (February 21, 2024) – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announces the launch of the CI Auspice Alternative Diversified Corporate Class (“the Fund”), a systematic, trend-following, multi-strategy Fund that seeks to provide returns that are uncorrelated with other alternative strategies and fixed income, while also being negatively correlated to equities.

“We are excited to partner with CI GAM in bringing access to the Auspice flagship fund, the most tenured in its category in Canada, and one of few funds to deliver positive returns with negative equity correlation alongside actual commodity exposure” said Tim Pickering, the Auspice Chief Investment Officer and co-founder.

Read more here.

Decarbonization, deglobalization and demographics will help keep inflation higher than historical standards.

Tim Pickering was featured in a Dec 31st 2023 Special to the Financial Post.

"We believe we are on the doorstep of a shift where inflation is clearly not transitory nor persistent, but structural.

The inflation migration has likely only started in commodities following generational catalysts. It is being led by scarcity of resources and workers as demand by the developing world and “build back better” of rich nations exceeds the delicate and narrow supply margin.

Whereas China dominated the narrative of the early 2000s commodity cycle, the three Ds and India will likely lead this decade’s cycle. The demand for commodities and wage pressures is a longer-term shift that can’t be ignored."

Read More.

Auspice is sponsoring the first ever Fin-tech case competition at the Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, with Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo).

The UofA Business Finance Association and the Business Technology Management Club are teaming up to bring the first-ever Fin-tech case competition.

An expert panel of judges includes professionals from Auspice as well as esteemed professors. This competition is an opportunity for students to sharpen their presentation and teamwork skills while building their network with industry insiders.

Tim Pickering was featured in the September 6th, 2023 edition of Wealth Professional

“The North American fires and hot dry summer have put pressure on an already-pressured commodity supply – from oil to lumber, minerals to grains,” says Tim Pickering, founder, president, and CIO of Auspice Capital. “This, along with massive demand in the fastest-growing middle class market and now largest global population - India - will drive the second wave of the commodity supercycle.”

“The reality is that a lack of broad commodity capital expenditures starting over a decade ago has led to a fragile supply that will continue to be interrupted by things like weather-related events – fire, floods or drought,”

Tim Pickering was featured in the Saturday July 29th edition of the Financial Post.

“Do average citizens feel like daily expenses have gotten cheaper? Not a chance. Groceries cost much more than last year, up 9.1 per cent, which is higher than the increase in May. Core measures of inflation — which strip out volatility — have not eased. Mortgage interest costs were up more than 30 per cent from June 2022.”

“Here is what the central banks won’t tell you, there are two types of inflation: one which they have some control over and one which they do not. Raising rates may be effective for “demand-pull” inflation, constraining the price of services and manufactured goods. By raising rates, we all spend less. However, it is not effective for “cost-push” inflation, which is driven by commodities and wages. They don’t have this lever.”