“When you buy an oil company you buy a lot of other things that make it behave like other energy stocks or even like the whole stock market. Further, when you move beyond energy, markets like sugar, orange juice, carbon, cotton, coffee, lead, and tin – these markets don’t really care about interest rates, the Fed, or what the US President does. They are mostly driven by local or global supply and demand.”

“Gold did well during the recent period of disinflation in 2023 and 2024, when CPI moderated, and other growth type assets such as equities and crypto also did well. It can be a great diversifier, but it has not proven to be a reliable inflation hedge.”

Auspice CIO & President Tim Pickering outlined why he thinks we might be in the upswing of a commodity cycle and why a broader commodity basket can help now.

See more in the March 19th, 2025 Wealth Professional here.

Trying to leave politics aside is difficult as a Canadian right now. A changing federal leadership and the return of a tariff-driven Donald Trump-led U.S. administration have ignited uncertainty. Emotions are running high and throwing off markets. But for investors who can keep a cool head and realize that markets trade on supply, demand, sentiment and psychology, alongside fundamental and technical forces, this volatility can create opportunity. And nowhere is that more true than in commodities.

See more in the March 17th, 2025 Special to the Financial Post here.

“Canada is a major producer of critical minerals, which see high demand for use in renewables.

The U.S. wants these resources because it needs them in its supply chain where it might have previously sourced those items from other nations like Russia and China.

Ultimately, they want to secure friendly supply chains…And when you get to the U.S. military, seeking domestic or allied mineral supply chains and avoiding reliance on these potential adversaries it’s a no brainer”.

Auspice Founder & CIO Tim Pickering was interviewed by BNN and featured in a February 15th 2024 article in BNN Bloomberg and CTV News. See more here.

Tim Pickering was interviewed by Mike Eppel on 680 News Canada.

About 4 million barrels of Canadian Crude Oil are exported from Alberta to the United States every day. While President Trump has suggested the US doesn’t need anything from Canada, he ignores the fact that Canada is the largest source of Crude imports (do they really want more from Venezuela, Russia or the Middle East?).

Trump tariffs could affect heavy oil differentials (currently -$12 to -$14 see here via the Canadian Crude Index), some say by as much 5-$15/b....but this simply is "the art of the deal". Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is smarter than that.

To hear more, download the MP3 audio recording here.

Auspice was featured in the December 24th 2024 special to the Financial Post.

There are always surprises in commodities. It wasn’t too long ago when investors were exuberant around so-called “energy transition” commodities. Now we look back, lithium, cobalt and natural gas are among the worst-performing markets in 2024. The long-term fundamentals are compelling, but timing is everything.

As we enter 2025, timing for these and other commodities may be opportune. The election result in the United States and the Republican platform are widely considered inflationary, with commodities a key component in this.

Read More.

CALGARY, Alberta, Dec. 19, 2024 - Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (Auspice) is pleased to announce that after listening to our institutional and retail investors, Canada’s original and only pioneering 81-102 approved “return stacking / portable alpha” solution, the Auspice One Fund Trust is evolving to serve you better by modifying its investment strategies.

Instead of overlaying a value-tilted balanced mandate, we are simplifying the investment strategy. For every dollar invested, you get $1 of exposure to the long-standing protective CTA / managed futures fund, Auspice Diversified, and $1 of exposure to the S&P500. Two for one.

You gain diversification without sacrificing your core holdings.

See more here.

Tim Pickering was featured in a April 7th 2024 Special to the Financial Post.

Like many things within financial markets, the link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. As an example, it is generally understood that central banks raise rates in an attempt to control inflation. Yet what is less understood is that raising rates only affects our spending, the so-called “demand-pull inflation” associated with manufactured goods, whereas it does little to control the “cost-push inflation” associated with commodity prices and wages.

Central banks can’t control commodity prices or their supply since raising rates neither increases short-term commodity supplies nor attracts long-term commodity infrastructure investments.

Another rarely made link is the one between technology and commodities, or new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels and drill bits. But the link is strong and growing stronger, and it may be an important factor in the extension of the current commodity cycle that started in 2020 — cycles that typically last 10 years.

Read More.

Fund aims to deliver noncorrelated returns, “crisis alpha”, and inflation protection in a new corporate class structure.

CALGARY (February 21, 2024) – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announces the launch of the CI Auspice Alternative Diversified Corporate Class (“the Fund”), a systematic, trend-following, multi-strategy Fund that seeks to provide returns that are uncorrelated with other alternative strategies and fixed income, while also being negatively correlated to equities.

“We are excited to partner with CI GAM in bringing access to the Auspice flagship fund, the most tenured in its category in Canada, and one of few funds to deliver positive returns with negative equity correlation alongside actual commodity exposure” said Tim Pickering, the Auspice Chief Investment Officer and co-founder.

Read more here.

Decarbonization, deglobalization and demographics will help keep inflation higher than historical standards.

Tim Pickering was featured in a Dec 31st 2023 Special to the Financial Post.

"We believe we are on the doorstep of a shift where inflation is clearly not transitory nor persistent, but structural.

The inflation migration has likely only started in commodities following generational catalysts. It is being led by scarcity of resources and workers as demand by the developing world and “build back better” of rich nations exceeds the delicate and narrow supply margin.

Whereas China dominated the narrative of the early 2000s commodity cycle, the three Ds and India will likely lead this decade’s cycle. The demand for commodities and wage pressures is a longer-term shift that can’t be ignored."

Read More.